< Previous50 C EO M I D D L E E A S T M AY 2020 LEADERSHIP | LONDON BUSINESS SCHOOL ANY BUSINESS LEADERS WILL BE experiencing the pressure of “make your mind up time” on countless important issues. The pressure is above all to decide despite the uncertainties. Good judgement is at a premium because of the lack of a precedent and of crucial data. So what does good judgement look like in this context? There is no one- size-fits-all blueprint. The context and cultural background will vary. The type of organisation involved will vary. Sir Andrew Likierman sets out how those in leadership positions in any country or industry should approach the judgement process. He defines judgement as “the ability to combine personal qualities with relevant knowledge and experience to form opinions and take decisions”. Judgement is a collection of qualities, not a single attribute. And it does not mean being cautious: “It means taking decisions in the right way at the right time – not avoiding a decision. So this is not about caution. Delay too long and it is too late. Not doing something is effectively doing something. And it’s not about being judgemental! That’s the opposite of judgement.” In measuring good judgement, we have to acknowledge that we can’t rely on using outcomes. That’s because luck may well be behind success, according to Likierman. What’s more, we will never know what would have happened if different choices had been made. What Likierman’s analysis provides is help to “stack the cards in your favour”. The six dimensions of judgement Consider these six aspects of judgement, he suggests: 1- Listening and reading. Have I understood? We vary in our ability to take in what we hear and what we read. So we need to actively ask ourselves, “Have I understood what I’ve heard and read?” 2- Can I trust the information and the person giving it? This is not just what I see and read, it’s also about who I believe. The New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is a rare example of a leader who speaks plainly and convincingly in a crisis, as we saw after the shootings in Christchurch last year. 3- Do I have the relevant information and experience? What do we know for sure about coronavirus? More than we did a month ago. And in a month we will know more, and in three months even more. Meanwhile we need to acknowledge the limitations of what we have. M BUSINESS LEADERS WORLDWIDE ARE FACED WITH AN OVERWHELMING ARRAY OF DIFFICULT DECISIONS. SIR ANDREW LIKIERMAN, PROFESSOR OF MANAGEMENT PRACTICE AND FORMER DEAN OF LONDON BUSINESS SCHOOL, EXPLAINS HIS EXTENSIVE RESEARCH INTO LEADERS, HOW THEY FORM JUDGEMENTS TO MAKE DECISIONS, AND PROVIDES A FRAMEWORK WHICH WILL HELP NAVIGATE THE CRISIS HOW TO EXERCISEJUDGEMENT DURING A PANDEMIC LEADERSHIP | LONDON BUSINESS SCHOOLM AY 2020 C EO M I D D L E E A S T 51 In the wake of coronavirus things are going to change pretty fundamentally for some organisations. As far as planning ahead is concerned you will need a range of forecasts to help guide you through the coming months, being clear about the assumptions you are making. Try to look for evidence that may be missing. In any case, now is probably too early to make detailed plans for the post-coronavirus world. As far as your numerical models are concerned, computer programmes could now be unsound, Likierman says. Your models may no longer apply. Check out the assumptions they are based on to see if they are still relevant. 3- Should I rely on my gut? This is a very common question at a time like this, Likierman says. Distinguished authors have come up with a range of responses to it, for example with Malcolm Gladwell (in Blink) suggesting that you can trust it, and Daniel Kahneman (in Thinking, Fast and Slow) arguing against. Likierman suggests a checklist for deciding whether to rely on gut instinct for a difficult decision: Do you tend to act and then regret it? Do you have the data you need? Are the stakes high? Do you have the necessary experience? Since right now most leaders don’t have the data they need or enough experience of pandemics, this is probably not a great time to trust your gut. For any judgements, Likierman suggests six points to keep in mind: • Be aware of your filtering in listening and reading. • Be careful in who and what you trust. • Be aware of how far you have relevant experience and knowledge. • Understand your feelings and beliefs. • Make sure you have the right options. • Check on the practicality of delivery. Good leaders in these circumstances, Likierman says, have the ability to communicate that they understand the situation but acknowledge the uncertainties. It’s a delicate balance, he adds, and one in which leaders can show their colleagues and other stakeholders why they are in charge. Sir Andrew Likierman, Professor of Management Practice and former dean of London Business School 4- How do my feeling and beliefs (including about risk) affect my choice? How one makes judgements is filtered through beliefs and feelings, Likierman warns. Acknowledging this is a good step towards making decisions that are less influence by bias. 5- Are these the right options for my choice? We have to consider who else to involve in decision-making during the crisis. We have to look at how others are approaching things. In a crisis we have to think radically about how to get through it, for example, through zero-based budgeting. 6- Delivery Can this be done? Implementing a decision in a pandemic will not be straightforward. For example, key people might be unavailable through family circumstances, or indeed illness themselves. Beware of biases A big part of forming a good judgement is recognising that we are all subject to biases, Likierman says. For example, we might be systematically optimistic or pessimistic. We might have a bias for seeing analogies to the current situation. Examples are falling prey to confirmation bias (when we think evidence supports our point of view) or availability bias (when the latest piece of evidence is given too much weight). We may tend to set too much store by small numbers, when a sample of evidence is not big enough to be meaningful. And groups may well be prey to groupthink when it is tempting to agree with the majority rather than risk disapproval or exclusion. Three questions to ask yourself Likierman suggests we ask ourselves these three specific questions, as we all wrestle with this issue of forming sound judgements: 1- What do I know? “Push yourself along the timeline of information”, he says. Get as much of the relevant facts and data that you can – there may be more than you realise. For example, the World Health Organisation (WHO) website has advice on what works and what doesn’t, in the controversy about the use of face masks. Above all, acknowledge that you are not the only person facing the problem you face now, Likierman observes. Find others in a similar situation and read about or discuss it with them. You might need to think differently and employ “creative benchmarking” – imaginative ways of finding appropriate parallels. 2- How do I plan? This is a moment to revisit your appetite for risk, Likierman says. And he has some radical thoughts about what other actions to take, such as scrapping the 2020 budget. Perhaps it describes a world that no longer exists. Others – your suppliers, customers, competitors – will be affected by current events even if you are not. You may even need new objectives, with graded timescales, or rolling forecasts rather than fixed ones. Be realistic about how far you can plan ahead. And be explicit about the inevitable trade-offs you face. Ask yourself: “Would I be prepared to defend what I am doing now when this is all over?” Zero-based budgeting and other drastic moves may appear to be disruptive but they might be worth it, Likierman says. 52 C EO M I D D L E E A S T M AY 2020 MARCUS SMITH: STAYING MENTALLY FIT DURING COVID-19 SETTING THERIGHTEXAMPLE LEADERSHIP | MARCUS SMITH Marcus Smith is an extreme athlete, entrepreneur and motivational speaker. He is also the owner of InnerFight and the co-founder of Smith Street Paleo. M AY 2020 C EO M I D D L E E A S T 53 UMANS LIKE COMFORT. WE SEEK IT OUT IN many areas of our lives and we are perhaps even hard-wired to do so. Perhaps mistakenly, many people live as if they have control over most things and are able to do what they want, when they want and how they want. And because full control and freedom is rarely the case, people exercise their freedoms by doing what is permitted; a drive to the beach, dinner at a local restaurant or booking a flight overseas. Regardless of the specific choices we make, our ability to choose to do these things absolutely contributes to our sense of comfort and control in our lives. In the context of a world struggling with COVID-19, countries all over the world have made the difficult decision to severely impact these freedoms. As we are asked to stay home, we are faced with saying goodbye – at least temporarily – to many of the things that bring us happiness and comfort. And perhaps the most distressing of all is that we can no longer seek comfort from our family and friends in the ways we normally would. For many, this disconnection is causing a growing sense of discomfort. For some, the motivation to stay fit or be productive in our jobs is waning; for others the act of juggling work and home- schooling their children is overwhelming. And so, we find ourselves here: on an emotional roller coaster, yearning for human interaction, anxious about the changing economic environment and frustrated at our inability to escape or control the situation. The result is that both collectively and individually, our mental health is being tested like never before. But, action can be taken to avoid some truly dire consequences. With that in mind, there are four key things that can be implemented to improve our ability to manage these difficult times, and beyond. Routine: With work and life merging into one space physically, it is all the more important to separate them mentally. To do this, you need at least two routines: one for your working week and one for the weekend. By creating a routine, you create disciple and organisation, and in fact, after a lifetime of conditioning many of us really need this and feel lost and confused without it. It can also be helpful to keep some of your “usual” routine elements H to be intentional in your activities. Meaning, once you are done exercising, put the gear away to focus on your work. And equally, once you are done working for the day, turn off the computer and put it away so you can properly enjoy your rest time with those around you. By creating space in this way you allow yourself to clearly focus on the task at hand without distraction...especially important for your rest time so that you don’t end up feeling like you are working all the time now that there is no physical separation from the workplace. Move: Our bodies are built to move! No matter how big or small, the act of movement creates a cascade of positive chemical reactions in your brain. These are endorphins, the so called “feel good” chemicals. You do not have to run a marathon to feel this benefit, just 20-30 minutes of exercise each day is enough. And in addition to this, aim to move or stretch for 5 minutes every hour that you are sitting down. The physical benefits of this are unquestionable, but the psychological benefits too are significant as you give yourself a mini break to reset and refocus. There is no doubt that COVID-19 and the resulting restrictions on our lives are putting huge strains on us all physically, mentally and emotionally. Our need for human interaction, comfort and control over our lives is real and changes to each of these elements can leave us feeling lost and anxious. By taking back some control and choosing to implement these strategies, we build resilience and a positive mindset that will surely help us through these difficult times and well in the future. in place for a sense of normality. So if your working hours at the office were 9-5, then maintain the same at home. Or if you always had your lunch break at 1pm then do the same now. Reflecting on your routine before lockdown and mirroring as many of these elements as you can will increase your sense of familiarity and control, and the impact of this can be huge. Small things: Keep things simple! If you focus on one or two “small things” that you can do everyday that make you feel good about life, then again you increase your sense of wellbeing and control over your world. This could be as simple as reading a chapter of a book, listening to your favourite song or calling a loved one. Identify these small things that make you happy and commit do doing these things regularly. In this way, our minds are not so different from plants - with consistent care they can grow and flourish even in difficult conditions. Create space: Regardless of where you live and how much space you have at your disposal, it makes such a difference if you can separate your workplace, exercise space and relaxing space. Our brains love routine and consistency, and in fact while they are capable of amazing things, they function best with a singular purpose. Thus having your work and exercise gear also in your relaxing space will leave you feeling like you are constantly “on”, and likely reduce your productivity in whichever activity you are trying to engage in. If you don’t have space to dedicate separate rooms to each activity, then simply choose Mental resilience: Marcus ran 30 marathons in 30 days, just nine months after being hit by a truck.54 C EO M I D D L E E A S T M AY 2020 PLEASURE WATCHES FOR WONDERFUL WOMEN STYLE WATCHES TRAVEL ACCESSORIES 54 C EO M I D D L E E A S T M AY 2020 SOMETIMES WE JUST CRAVE A LITTLE BLACK AND WHITE… HUBLOT’S BIG BANG ONE-CLICK MARC FERRERO BRINGS A DASH OF WHIMSICAL FANTASY AT A TIME WHEN WE NEED IT MOST A MOMENT THAT CLICKSM AY 2020 C EO M I D D L E E A S T 55 “I LOVE THE POWER OF BLACK AND WHITE, SHADE AND LIGHT, YIN AND YANG. ONE IS PROFOUND, UNCLASSIFIABLE, ETERNAL. THE OTHER IS SUBTLE, ETHEREAL, TIMELESS.” — MARC FERRERO T case set with 42 diamonds, that houses the HUB1710 self-winding movement. The strap is white calf leather or white alligator and white rubber; with a 50 hour power reserve and 100m water resistance, it underscores the watchmaking prowess of the brand alongside its commitment to artistry and experimentation – the true art of fusion. The black version of the watch also comes with two strap versions, the case this time in polished black ceramic and satin-finished ceramic, likewise set with 42 diamonds. Featuring a graphical depiction of a female face with a bold dash of red lipstick, the watches pick up where Ferrero’s previous colab with Hublot left off – exploring the idea of a woman empowered by her freedom. At a time when many female watch lovers are quarantined at home, this may be the perfect way to express a latent desire to escape and express herself. fantasy and escapism is Hublot’s latest collaboration with artist Marc Ferrero, two watches that are irreverently playful yet absolutely underpin Hublot’s mastery of the art of fusion and top-end watchmaking. One is black and one is white, and both riff on the idea of a female who is daring, assured, enigmatic and multifaceted. “I love the power of black and white, Shade and light, Yin and Yang,” muses Ferrero, the artist behind the watch. “One is profound, unclassifiable, eternal. The other is subtle, ethereal, timeless. They symbolise antitheses and complementarity. Choosing black and white means getting straight to the point without an excess of tonalities. The black and white make ‘Lipstick’ even more graphic and its red lipstick—more magnetic.” The white watch features a satin- finished and polished stainless steel 39mm he Swiss industry has shown remarkable resilience in the face of the global pandemic, and despite both of its major annual events being cancelled, the novelties anticipated for springtime release have been introduced around the world via the power of social media and virtual presentations. One that invites absolutely the required dose of 56 C EO M I D D L E E A S T M AY 2020 DON’T WORRY, EVERY CLOUD HAS A SILVER LINING, AND THESE BLUE- AND-SILVER BEAUTIES, COMING SOON TO A BOUTIQUE OR ECOMMERCE SITE NEAR YOU, MAY BE JUST THE (TICKING)TICKET TO PUT A SMILE ON YOUR WRIST ONCE MORE... WATCHES | FEELING BLUE FEELING BLUE PANERAI LUMINOR MARINA FIBRATECH CARTIER TANK ASSYMETRIQUE PIAGET LIMELIGHT GALA MONTBLANC 1858 GEOSPHERE BAUME & MERCIER CLIFTON ROGER DUBUIS EXCALIBUR DIABOLUS MACHINE LANGE & SOEHNE ZEITWERK MINUTE REPEATER M AY 2020 C EO M I D D L E E A S T 57 oasting an impressively slim movement, exceptional elegance and horological complexity, Vacheron Constantin’s new Traditionelle Tourbillon may well be the grail watch we all need to dream about in these unprecedented times. Calibre 2160 expresses the pillars of watchmaking refi nement that defi ne the brand – beauty, technical mastery and exceptional VACHERON CONSTANTIN UNVEILS THE FIRST SELF-WINDING TOURBILLON FOR LADIES WATCHES | VACHERON CONSTANTIN B IT’S COMPLICATED fi nishing, in a classic 39mm case that sparkles with 208 diamonds set on the bezel, caseband and lugs. The dial is punctuated by a railtrack minute circle with dauphine hands and pink gold baton hour-markers. The tourbillon can be admired through a round aperture in the dial, with its 18-carat white gold structure beating impressively, a mastery of technical watchmaking forming a centrepiece in ths jewelled masterpiece” 58 C EO M I D D L E E A S T MAY 2020 Timeless WatchBox boasts a global watch inventory valued at around $80m, says Reis ODAY WE ARE LIVING IN UNPRECEDENTED TIMES. Never before has a spotlight been shone so clearly on the importance of taking stock and focussing on the aspects of life that mean so much to us. Family and friends, good health, a job, or even material possessions that hold true meaning, sentimental or otherwise. The notion of value itself is linked to several attributes – worthiness, usefulness or importance – all of which will strike a chord, now more than ever, with watch collectors and enthusiasts around the world. Whether holding onto a most treasured family heirloom or planning to either sell, trade or invest in a timepiece that will serve as an asset or provide an immediate gain, the watch industry holds value. There have been many famous watch collections that have rung up significant value over time, such as that of John Mayer, which is thought to be around $40m. The world has also seen a watch that was purchased for around $250 in the late 1960s only to be sold for a whopping $17.8m in 2017. The value of a watch depends on many things and there are key elements that have allowed certain models to double or even triple in price. The Rolex steel sport models such as the Daytona, GMT Master II and Submariner have truly held their value and even increased over time. The history to these models can be traced back 30 years or more with steep appreciation in the last few years. The most outstanding example is the Paul Newman Daytona which sold for witnessed in F.P. Journe models in recent years. As a relatively small brand that does not produce a large number of pieces each year, it is in a unique position that sees it remain admired and desirable. Indeed, the significant demand for these distinct watches has enabled many of the models to value above retail price. Despite a pullback in prices due to the uncertainty in these unprecedented times, we have seen continued strength in the market for timepieces people are interested in owning for the long term. Clients that are looking to acquire pieces now can take advantage of prices on many models that haven’t been seen in several years. In uncertain times, we recommend top tier brands as an entry point for those that are looking to preserve value for selling in the future. Pre-owned timepieces from Rolex and Patek Philippe are historically the most valuable in terms of an asset, and we have also seen significant appreciation in pre- owned watches from F.P. Journe. As a global, e-commerce first platform, WatchBox operates without many of the constraints of traditional retail, and we’re uniquely positioned to facilitate our clients’ needs remotely – whether they are looking to make an investment or indeed sell a piece that will provide them with immediate liquidity from watches in their collection. The WatchBox model positions pre- owned watches as a tradeable asset class with the benefits of real-time, market- driven pricing. $17.8m in 2017. Other examples are the 1971 Rolex Daytona Reference 626 Unicorn which sold for $5.9m in 2018 and Marlon Brando’s Apocalypse Now Rolex GMT-Master which sold for $ 1.95m in 2019. Audemars Piguet was the first watchmaker to create steel watches as a result of the quartz crisis in the 1970s. Gerald Genta designed the era-defining Royal Oak that was unveiled at the 1972 Baselworld fair, and which created an entire new category of the steel luxury sports watch. The Royal Oak has stood the test of time, maintaining its value as the demand remains higher than the production, cementing its position as the most desirable model. In fact, it’s almost impossible to purchase a Royal Oak Jumbo Extra-Thin 15202BC new without a waiting of over two or three years. This increase in demand has pushed the value of the style about 55 percent more than retail. The higher the scarcity of the model the higher the price and there are some Royal Oak models that list for 100 percent more than retail as a result of its desirability. Similarly, the Patek Philippe Steel Nautilus has become a rare and scarce model to get hold of. So much so that it’s highly unlikely to find the Nautilus model to try on at retailers. This has protected the inherent value of the brand for over a century. The low annual production numbers mean that it will undoubtedly continue to increase in significance and value over time. The most expensive watch in the world is a one-of-a-kind Patek Philippe which sold for $31m in 2019. A steep increase in value has been T FINAL THOUGHTS END JUSTIN REIS, GLOBAL CEO FOR WATCHBOX, ON THE FUTURE OF THE WATCH INDUSTRY AMID THE PANDEMIC ONLY TIME CAN TELLMATCHING BUYERS WITH SUPPLIERS AND GROWING BUSINESSES OILANDGASMIDDLEEAST.COMNext >